tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37675897.post1354601365508248600..comments2023-12-28T02:11:22.501+00:00Comments on The Streatham & Brixton Chess Blog: Great News for Chess Grades? -- Or -- Putting the Grrrrrr into Grading?Tom Chivershttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09850710685193416732noreply@blogger.comBlogger32125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37675897.post-4493712297296242722008-07-16T19:42:00.000+01:002008-07-16T19:42:00.000+01:00So I get to be 192 next time but one?That can't be...So I get to be 192 next time but one?<BR/><BR/>That can't be right, I'm no bloody good.ejhhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01582272075999298935noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37675897.post-64111657666141241132008-07-16T19:28:00.000+01:002008-07-16T19:28:00.000+01:00Yes thanks for pointing out the discrepancies Cars...Yes thanks for pointing out the discrepancies Carsten. I just wish I could help explain!Tom Chivershttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09850710685193416732noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37675897.post-14107927263071367342008-07-16T18:34:00.000+01:002008-07-16T18:34:00.000+01:00JustinYou'll be sorry you asked but here it is.Som...Justin<BR/><BR/>You'll be sorry you asked but here it is.<BR/><BR/><BR/>Somewhere in the thread on the ECF forum there is a link to a paper by Sean Hewitt where he calculates the errors in the current grades and proposes a conversion of "grade * 0.77 + 47" (or thereabouts, I'm quoting from memory)as a "quick & dirty" solution, to both fix grade compression problem and correct the deflation which has happened over time.<BR/><BR/>In the end the ECF decided to completely recalculate all grades and Tom was told on the ECF forum that the formula "Grade * 0.8 + 50" is a fairly accurate approximation of what most new grades will be, and that therfore, he could expect a NewGrd of about 198!<BR/><BR/>That was based on an expected 2008/09 grade of 185, which I presume he'll be once his grade has been corrected but even with 181 he should rise to 195, as I listed originally. <BR/><BR/>Tom<BR/><BR/>I assume once the list is out there will be lots of activity on the ECF forum and all will be revealed, I can wait I think.<BR/>Angus actually linked to here, so I thought I'd mention what I'd noticed.<BR/><BR/>CarstenAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37675897.post-57203346708867668862008-07-16T16:38:00.000+01:002008-07-16T16:38:00.000+01:00Sorry, what's the last figure (or indeed the formu...Sorry, what's the last figure (or indeed the formula) all about?ejhhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01582272075999298935noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37675897.post-69682957724057191392008-07-16T15:50:00.000+01:002008-07-16T15:50:00.000+01:00None! That doesn't look right indeed. I reckon you...None! That doesn't look right indeed. I reckon your best bet would be to enquire at the ECF forum under "Grading Debate" . . .Tom Chivershttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09850710685193416732noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37675897.post-33317831604661321172008-07-16T15:46:00.000+01:002008-07-16T15:46:00.000+01:00Thanks to Angus I've now seen my provisional 2008/...Thanks to Angus I've now seen my provisional 2008/09, including the "NewGrd" which is supposedly the revised grade.<BR/><BR/>According to the list my grade for 2008/9 of 178 (which is wrong for reasons irrelevant to this issue) has been adjusted to - 179!! Wow!<BR/><BR/>Using the formula (grade *0.8 + 50)I'd have expected it to be around 192 plus or minus a bit. In fact, as my opponents last season only averaged 164, I'd expect my adjustment to be larger than most. <BR/><BR/>Looking at comparable S&BCC bloggers (hope you don't mind guys), I find:<BR/><BR/> OLD NewGrd Grd*0.8+50<BR/>Tom 181 181 195<BR/>EJH 178 179 192<BR/>Jon 138 147 160<BR/><BR/>Doesn't really add up does it?<BR/><BR/>For lower graded players the adjustments are more substantial. Here are a couple of random anonymous examples:<BR/> <BR/> 92 107 124<BR/> 72 98 108<BR/> 107 123 135<BR/><BR/>So, although more substantial still we'll below what was announced would be the typical adjustment. <BR/><BR/>Any idea what's going on, anyone?<BR/><BR/>CarstenAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37675897.post-716773597354857502008-06-17T12:14:00.000+01:002008-06-17T12:14:00.000+01:00Just read the wikipedia entry again, and I'm prett...Just read the wikipedia entry again, and I'm pretty sure Tim would have been 13yo when he won the Scunthorpe Minor in 1980. That's pretty impressive for most 13-year-old chess players, I reckon. I wish I could remember my tournament results from that age to compare.Tom Chivershttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09850710685193416732noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37675897.post-72026721288385869582008-06-16T18:13:00.000+01:002008-06-16T18:13:00.000+01:00And I've disassociated myself with this blog - esp...And I've disassociated myself with this blog - especially the posts I write.Jonathan Bhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00293162543015231439noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37675897.post-6460578273721289112008-06-16T15:12:00.000+01:002008-06-16T15:12:00.000+01:00Btw, the ECF have now disassociated themselves fro...Btw, the ECF have now disassociated themselves from their (!) forum. They still link to it from their frontpage, but with the smallprint: "The views expressed on this forum are not necessarily the official view of the English Chess Federation." It has also be renamed as the "English Chess Forum".Tom Chivershttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09850710685193416732noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37675897.post-42634044592757475832008-06-15T17:22:00.000+01:002008-06-15T17:22:00.000+01:00Well, if one is proud of starting a newspaper colu...Well, if one is proud of starting a newspaper column the idea of which is to invite the poor and desperate to write in to beg for money - <I>Wanking for Coins</I> as Charlie Brooker would have it - then I imagine one can be proud of anything ... even winning the Sspantonthorpe minor of 1980.Jonathan Bhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00293162543015231439noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37675897.post-2842045828891984692008-06-14T00:43:00.000+01:002008-06-14T00:43:00.000+01:00'does anyone else suspect that there might not act...'does anyone else suspect that there might not actually be a "Bigot Of The Year" competition...?'<BR/><BR/>That did occur to me. But google is one's friend in such matters, and it seems that said competition did indeed exist, until Mind decided that the 'winners' were all too happy about their accomplishment. See <A HREF="http://findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_qa3949/is_200407/ai_n9410338/pg_1" REL="nofollow">here</A>, for example. <BR/><BR/>It's not something I would be boasting about myself; but then I get the impression that Spanton and I probably wouldn't agree about much...Davidhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13388819916739249013noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37675897.post-12876234528454033442008-06-13T16:44:00.000+01:002008-06-13T16:44:00.000+01:00Quite so Alan.Returning to the subject of Tim Span...Quite so Alan.<BR/><BR/>Returning to the subject of Tim Spanton's wikipedia entry, does anyone else suspect that there might not actually be a "Bigot Of The Year" competition, of which Mr Spanton is claimed to a finalist?Tom Chivershttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09850710685193416732noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37675897.post-92023045946319404512008-06-12T13:55:00.000+01:002008-06-12T13:55:00.000+01:00Gradings are only a guide and surely the most impo...Gradings are only a guide and surely the most important thing is to enjoy playing chess.<BR/><BR/>Personally I am not bothered whether my grade is 20 or 30 points higher or lower (last season I was 165), although I can understand if somebody is graded in the 190's,140's or 90's it might be good to get the extra few points to reach 200,150 or 100.<BR/><BR/>AlanAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37675897.post-47157740499822653792008-06-11T10:13:00.000+01:002008-06-11T10:13:00.000+01:00Yes, there will be these sort of effects for some ...Yes, there will be these sort of effects for some players (posing the kind of problem that the double hermeneutic does for the social sciences?) I blogged ages ago how I'd gone two seasons without beating anyone in the 160s, and that my average grade against fellow 160s was through the floor compared to both weaker or stronger players, a particularly clear and extreme example. <A HREF="http://streathambrixtonchess.blogspot.com/2007/04/what-can-we-learn-from-statistics.html" REL="nofollow">(Link.)</A> The question I suppose is whether or not this things iron themselves out overall, or not. I don't have a strong hunch either way.Tom Chivershttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09850710685193416732noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37675897.post-41422197247615892752008-06-11T09:57:00.000+01:002008-06-11T09:57:00.000+01:00not for aggregated results.Well, what I mean is, I...<I>not for aggregated results.</I><BR/><BR/>Well, what I mean is, I suspect that it is specious to imagine that you will score (say) 40% against players graded ten points better than you and 65% against players graded fifteen points worse, because it doesn't really work that way. There may be many reasons why, but one is that it may be psychologically more difficult to play against people a class below than a class above.<BR/><BR/>Indeed, knowing an opponent's grade will in actual practice affect the way you play, which is problematic for gradings in itself.<BR/><BR/>(I'm sure there must be statistical information that would tell us whether I'm likely to be right here.)ejhhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01582272075999298935noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37675897.post-74005689157842630612008-06-11T09:55:00.000+01:002008-06-11T09:55:00.000+01:00I believe that amongst their peers of recent years...I believe that amongst their peers of recent years Sun journalists have had the *most* integrity, in the sense that, of all newspaper journalists they've had the least number of complaints against them upheld by the regulatory authorities. Of course this doesn't imply there exist any journalists with any integrity, but if there are then they are *officially* more likely to be found at The Sun than anywhere else.Tom Chivershttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09850710685193416732noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37675897.post-14340681302427155802008-06-11T09:50:00.000+01:002008-06-11T09:50:00.000+01:00"Isn't it specious to imagine that gradings can ac..."Isn't it specious to imagine that gradings can act as a predictor anyway?" - imo only for individual results, not for aggregated results. Presumably next season the fit will be a lot closer between expected and actual results. It will be easy to see if this is the case by slicing the data anyhow.Tom Chivershttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09850710685193416732noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37675897.post-78538397694267957892008-06-11T09:17:00.000+01:002008-06-11T09:17:00.000+01:00"Isn't it specious to imagine that gradings can ac..."Isn't it specious to imagine that gradings can act as a predictor anyway?"<BR/><BR/>You think? It seems to me that they're extremely successful at this. (And this isn't surprising: experience surely tells us that in chess past performances are a pretty good indication of future performances.)<BR/><BR/>I really do think that almost the whole point of a grading system should be to give some meaningful indication of expected results. What do you think grades are for?Davidhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13388819916739249013noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37675897.post-62729811650869572662008-06-11T08:26:00.000+01:002008-06-11T08:26:00.000+01:00Hands up who feels ejh is making them feel rather ...Hands up who feels ejh is making them feel rather inadequate in their command on the English language, using words such as specious and ad hominem? They should bring back Call My Bluff and ejh should go up against Nosher.<BR/>I wonder if the (supposed?)grade deflation started when the +10 points on a juniors grade (when you played them) was removed. I think it was removed as it was causing inflation. I suspect the adjustment will line up ECF grades much closer with FIDE ratings. <BR/>Personally I feel that there are fewer 200 graded players than in the past, that 180 players are pretty useful (yes you as well next year Tom!) and so on. Not very scientific these hunches though.<BR/>AndrewAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37675897.post-11202046298722279942008-06-11T08:00:00.000+01:002008-06-11T08:00:00.000+01:00It was Spanton to whom I referred here. A Sun jour...It was Spanton to whom I referred <A HREF="http://streathambrixtonchess.blogspot.com/2008/01/you-need-hands.html" REL="nofollow">here</A>. A Sun journalist asking for integrity in any field is asking for an <I>ad hominem</I> response.ejhhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01582272075999298935noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37675897.post-4228746901414843422008-06-11T07:55:00.000+01:002008-06-11T07:55:00.000+01:00Isn't it specious to imagine that gradings can act...Isn't it specious to imagine that gradings can act as a predictor anyway?ejhhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01582272075999298935noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37675897.post-2785784119391321322008-06-10T20:58:00.000+01:002008-06-10T20:58:00.000+01:00Heh - the Spanton wikipedia page is tremendous. S...Heh - the Spanton wikipedia page is tremendous. Scunthope Minor 1980, indeed... I can only assume that he hasn't seen it; else I'd humbly suggest that a man who allows such things to stay on the internet ought not to talk too much about the stroking of fragile egos...<BR/><BR/>As for the grades, I'd suggest that:<BR/>- by far their most useful purpose is as predictors of future results<BR/>- it would be nice if today's grades had the same value, in some sense, as yesterday's grades. That is, a grade of XXX today should, if possible, be somehow equivalent to a grade of XXX at any other time.<BR/><BR/>As I understand it, the current system is simply failing on the first point. The symptoms appear to be that a rating difference of however many points is no longer worth as much as it was; that is, higher rated players are not scoring as heavily as would be expected against lower rated players. That being so, it makes sense to multiply grades by some appropriate factor - which apparently turns out to be about 0.8 - to restore their predictive power.<BR/><BR/>After that, the adding of some constant value (50 points) is just an attempt to meet the second criterion and make new grades look roughly like old grades. <BR/><BR/>In short, this all sounds perfectly reasonable to me. Except, of course, that if we're going to change everything then it would surely make more sense to take the opportunity to join the rest of the world and use an Elo-style system...Davidhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13388819916739249013noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37675897.post-69711177521675012152008-06-10T19:07:00.000+01:002008-06-10T19:07:00.000+01:00I reckon the real reason is the disappearance of l...I reckon the real reason is the disappearance of large open tournaments. For some reason.<BR/><BR/>RichardAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37675897.post-17158162152997288452008-06-10T18:37:00.000+01:002008-06-10T18:37:00.000+01:00But it's not true that if there is deflation in th...But it's not true that if there is deflation in the system, deflation will be visible in every single player's grade. That was the point I was making. Individual examples are easy to find for both cynics and supporters, but do not matter one jot.Tom Chivershttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09850710685193416732noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37675897.post-33344274683784311272008-06-10T17:58:00.000+01:002008-06-10T17:58:00.000+01:00That's certainly a collapsehttp://grading.bcfservi...That's certainly a collapse<BR/><BR/>http://grading.bcfservices.org.uk/getref.php?ref=111200E<BR/><BR/>but compare it to his more active team mate.<BR/><BR/>http://grading.bcfservices.org.uk/getref.php?ref=121446K<BR/><BR/>That's my point about the jumping to conclusions criticism of the ECF's investigations. If there had been deflation you would expect to see it in both grades. It's a natural function of the Clarke grading system that it gives an analysis of results over a period. If your results are poor because you don't play much, then so is your grade. Elo based systems tend to have more of a memory - so they take a while to react.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com